The EU–US tariffs and trade

On this page, you will find our analyses of the EU–US trade and trade policy.

Could higher tariffs reduce a country's trade deficit?

Analysing data on tariffs and trade balances from 168 countries between 2019 and 2022, we find no correlation between high tariffs and a positive trade balance. Our analysis shows that raising tariffs is an ineffective method to improve a country's trade balance. To reduce a trade deficit, efforts should focus on strengthening public finances and promoting foreign investment rather than increasing tariffs. Take part of our analysis: Tariffs do not Improve the Trade Balance

What are the potential effects of the United States raising tariffs?

What are the potential effects of the United States implementing a tariff regime with additional tariffs on imports from China and other countries, as pledged by Donald Trump ahead of the upcoming November 2024 election. Our analysis indicate that all analysed countries and regions would experience negative growth effects and a significant decline in international trade.

The US would suffer the most from these tariffs, with total imports and exports expected to drop by 10 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. This decline would particularly impact the very industries the tariffs aim to protect, as many of them are deeply integrated into global value chains.

Is an EU–US digital trade agreement feasible?

In response to rising geopolitical tensions, both the EU and the US are increasingly restricting the cross-border flow of trade and investments. This analysis highlights the negative economic and security aspects of unnecessary regulatory or policy divergences that hinder deeper integration. In this report, we argue that a digital trade agreement between the EU and the US could mitigate these issues and strengthen economic ties. Download our analysis: Economic Security and Digital Trade: Time for an EU-US Digital Agreement