Trump’s tariffs would hit EU exports, but US suffers most

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Donald Trump’s proposed tariff increases on imports from China and other countries could have far-reaching consequences for global trade. Both production and exports will be negatively affected, leading to increased costs for businesses and reduced competitiveness. For Sweden and the EU, this could result in decreased growth.

A new analysis from the National Board of Trade explores the potential effects of Donald Trump implementing additional tariffs on imports from China and other countries ahead of the November 2024 election. By conducting simulations with the OECD's global trade model, METRO, the findings show that Swedish exports to the US decline by approximately 16 per cent, notably affecting sectors such as motor vehicles and pharmaceuticals.

– The proposed tariffs risk having far-reaching consequences for global trade and create challenges for Swedish companies reliant on the US export market, says Nils Norell, co-author of the analysis.

The country that would suffer the most is the United States itself, where imports and exports would be expected to drop by 10 and 14 per cent, respectively. Notably, the tariffs would particularly harm the industries they are intended to protect, largely because these sectors are deeply integrated into global value chains.

– This highlights the difficulties of using tariffs to protect domestic industries, says Nils Norell.

Read more and download the analysis
Economic Backfire: The Costly Impact of Trumps proposed Tariffs